Product / Measurement· target design · sandbox
Incrementality is not a dashboard setting.
Observed conversions, modeled lift, and attributed contribution live in separate columns with different labels and different confidence.
01 / LAYERS
Four kinds of truth.
A number's provenance determines what it may be used for. Mixing them produces confident fiction.
| Layer | Source | May be used for |
|---|---|---|
| Observed | Provider or first-party event | Reporting, reconciliation |
| Attributed | Documented attribution model | Channel comparison, with caveats |
| Modeled | Forecast or MMM | Planning, with interval |
| Verified | Experiment or holdout | Incrementality claims |
02 / HONESTY
What we will not show.
No blended ROAS presented as profit. No single-number “true lift” without an experiment. No fabricated benchmarks.
Contribution margin is computed only where reliable cost and outcome data exist. Where it does not, the system reports the gap instead of imputing a number.
Costs are separated: media, data, platform, creative, management, measurement, financing, fulfillment.
Reviewer view
Every metric links to its input snapshot, transformation, and timestamp so a reviewer can reconstruct the number.
Test it in the sandbox.
Every surface is exercised against fixtures before a production credential is involved.